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Oriental Watch Holdings Limited (0398.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.87 - $122.94$115.21
Multi-Stage$17.87 - $19.57$18.70
Blended Fair Value$66.96
Current Price$3.36
Upside1,892.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.27%49.08%0.480.150.750.710.270.390.400.060.010.00
YoY Growth--228.28%-80.54%5.41%159.75%-29.53%-4.38%538.82%1,100.31%28.61%-53.35%
Dividend Yield--13.45%4.20%17.13%16.95%10.35%25.08%17.11%2.76%0.29%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)301.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)243.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.2637.6622.60
Cash Retained (M)243.28243.28243.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.26-37.66-22.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)183.03205.62220.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)487.36487.36487.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.420.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.420.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.87$115.21$122.94
Upside / Downside1,443.76%3,329.00%3,558.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)301.28320.86341.72363.93387.58412.78425.16
Payout Ratio19.25%33.40%47.55%61.70%75.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.00107.17162.49224.54293.98371.50393.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)99.68100.62101.57
Year 2 PV (M)140.56143.24145.94
Year 3 PV (M)180.67185.86191.14
Year 4 PV (M)220.01228.47237.17
Year 5 PV (M)258.59271.08284.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,808.108,185.238,576.80
Equity Value (M)8,707.619,114.509,536.67
Shares Outstanding (M)487.36487.36487.36
Fair Value$17.87$18.70$19.57
Upside / Downside431.75%456.60%482.38%

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