Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Medicare Group Q.P.S.C. (MCGS.QA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.57 - $3.86$3.18
Multi-Stage$5.31 - $5.83$5.56
Blended Fair Value$4.37
Current Price$7.04
Upside-37.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.24%-3.01%0.220.260.240.280.280.290.390.290.500.48
YoY Growth---14.42%6.50%-12.59%-0.88%-3.24%-26.03%32.70%-41.07%3.52%61.00%
Dividend Yield--4.89%6.15%4.18%3.91%2.89%4.91%6.15%4.25%5.23%4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2210.766.46
Cash Retained (M)30.2830.2830.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.22-10.76-6.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0619.5223.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)281.26281.26281.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate-2.10%-1.10%-0.10%
Fair Value$2.57$3.18$3.86
Upside / Downside-63.47%-54.79%-45.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.1085.1684.2283.3082.3981.4983.93
Payout Ratio64.83%69.87%74.90%79.93%84.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.8259.5063.0866.5970.0073.3477.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate-2.10%-1.10%-0.10%
Year 1 PV (M)54.9255.4856.05
Year 2 PV (M)53.7654.8755.98
Year 3 PV (M)52.3954.0155.66
Year 4 PV (M)50.8452.9555.13
Year 5 PV (M)49.1751.7454.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,231.151,295.321,362.14
Equity Value (M)1,492.241,564.371,639.36
Shares Outstanding (M)281.26281.26281.26
Fair Value$5.31$5.56$5.83
Upside / Downside-24.64%-21.00%-17.21%

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