Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106.66 - $227.12$151.64
Multi-Stage$90.37 - $98.78$94.50
Blended Fair Value$123.07
Current Price$134.17
Upside-8.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.44%6.49%1.751.741.661.241.141.121.051.010.990.97
YoY Growth--0.95%4.30%33.98%8.94%2.16%6.50%3.58%2.40%1.67%4.02%
Dividend Yield--1.18%0.88%0.95%0.62%0.68%1.21%1.01%0.86%1.08%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)572.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)172.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)400.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.5371.5842.95
Cash Retained (M)400.08400.08400.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.53-71.58-42.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)285.55328.50357.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.22100.22100.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.853.283.56
LTM Dividend per Share1.721.721.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.853.283.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.575.005.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate4.49%5.49%6.49%
Fair Value$106.66$151.64$227.12
Upside / Downside-20.50%13.02%69.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)572.67604.11637.27672.26709.17748.10770.54
Payout Ratio30.14%42.11%54.08%66.05%78.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)172.59254.39344.65444.06553.34673.29712.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate4.49%5.49%6.49%
Year 1 PV (M)231.24233.45235.67
Year 2 PV (M)284.78290.26295.79
Year 3 PV (M)333.53343.20353.05
Year 4 PV (M)377.79392.46407.56
Year 5 PV (M)417.85438.23459.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,411.697,773.208,148.69
Equity Value (M)9,056.889,470.809,900.14
Shares Outstanding (M)100.22100.22100.22
Fair Value$90.37$94.50$98.78
Upside / Downside-32.65%-29.57%-26.38%

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