Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Afya Limited (AFYA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.64 - $110.10$89.56
Multi-Stage$154.41 - $170.16$162.13
Blended Fair Value$125.84
Current Price$82.95
Upside51.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.410.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)729.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)600.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.8991.1854.71
Cash Retained (M)600.42600.42600.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.89-91.18-54.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)454.53509.24545.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.7592.7592.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.905.495.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.391.391.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.905.495.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.296.887.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$71.64$89.56$110.10
Upside / Downside-13.64%7.96%32.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)729.43722.13714.91707.76700.68693.68714.49
Payout Ratio17.69%32.15%46.61%61.07%75.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.01232.16333.23432.26529.28624.31660.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)215.57217.77219.97
Year 2 PV (M)287.31293.21299.16
Year 3 PV (M)346.07356.77367.69
Year 4 PV (M)393.46409.77426.58
Year 5 PV (M)430.95453.39476.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,648.2613,306.8813,992.66
Equity Value (M)14,321.6215,037.7915,782.82
Shares Outstanding (M)92.7592.7592.75
Fair Value$154.41$162.13$170.16
Upside / Downside86.15%95.46%105.14%

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