Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Group Five Pipe Saudi Ltd. (9523.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.01 - $81.41$66.25
Multi-Stage$112.90 - $124.47$118.57
Blended Fair Value$92.41
Current Price$28.30
Upside226.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.860.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.6820.4212.25
Cash Retained (M)149.40149.40149.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.68-20.42-12.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)116.72128.97137.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.0028.0028.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.174.614.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.174.614.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.675.115.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$53.01$66.25$81.41
Upside / Downside87.32%134.10%187.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163.40161.77160.15158.55156.96155.39160.05
Payout Ratio8.57%24.85%41.14%57.43%73.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.0040.2165.8991.05115.70139.85148.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)37.3237.7138.09
Year 2 PV (M)56.7857.9559.12
Year 3 PV (M)72.8575.1077.40
Year 4 PV (M)85.9489.5093.17
Year 5 PV (M)96.43101.45106.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,811.782,958.203,110.65
Equity Value (M)3,161.103,319.903,485.11
Shares Outstanding (M)28.0028.0028.00
Fair Value$112.90$118.57$124.47
Upside / Downside298.93%318.97%339.82%

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