Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Dayuan Pumps Industry Co., Ltd (603757.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.83 - $54.40$34.71
Multi-Stage$17.84 - $19.44$18.62
Blended Fair Value$26.66
Current Price$47.49
Upside-43.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.52%18.67%1.450.880.340.960.480.310.320.340.170.16
YoY Growth--64.83%160.54%-64.98%102.71%55.56%-3.62%-7.74%103.93%8.31%-40.55%
Dividend Yield--6.25%3.78%1.28%6.46%2.46%2.15%1.77%1.18%1.02%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)201.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)118.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.3425.2115.13
Cash Retained (M)83.6383.6383.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.34-25.21-15.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2958.4268.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)172.85172.85172.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.83$34.71$54.40
Upside / Downside-49.83%-26.92%14.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)201.68214.79228.75243.62259.45276.31284.60
Payout Ratio58.53%64.83%71.12%77.41%83.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)118.05139.24162.69188.59217.18248.68263.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)125.81127.00128.20
Year 2 PV (M)132.82135.35137.91
Year 3 PV (M)139.13143.12147.19
Year 4 PV (M)144.77150.33156.06
Year 5 PV (M)149.78157.02164.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,390.552,506.012,625.89
Equity Value (M)3,082.853,218.843,359.77
Shares Outstanding (M)172.85172.85172.85
Fair Value$17.84$18.62$19.44
Upside / Downside-62.44%-60.79%-59.07%

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