Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Seagull Cooling Tower Co.,Ltd. (603269.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.57 - $72.25$26.00
Multi-Stage$9.18 - $10.01$9.59
Blended Fair Value$17.80
Current Price$14.10
Upside26.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.72%13.75%0.290.200.200.170.130.090.120.050.070.08
YoY Growth--47.94%1.85%13.61%27.67%43.68%-19.32%114.02%-24.06%-5.83%-6.48%
Dividend Yield--3.64%2.81%3.43%3.41%3.61%2.12%2.02%0.61%1.71%1.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.2413.277.96
Cash Retained (M)31.0731.0731.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.24-13.27-7.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8317.7923.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.43234.43234.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.57$26.00$72.25
Upside / Downside3.36%84.41%412.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.19113.09120.44128.27136.61145.49149.86
Payout Ratio70.74%74.60%78.45%82.30%86.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.1284.3694.48105.57117.69130.94138.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.2978.0278.76
Year 2 PV (M)79.3180.8282.35
Year 3 PV (M)81.1883.5285.89
Year 4 PV (M)82.9286.1189.39
Year 5 PV (M)84.5388.6192.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,746.501,830.861,918.44
Equity Value (M)2,151.732,247.932,347.67
Shares Outstanding (M)234.43234.43234.43
Fair Value$9.18$9.59$10.01
Upside / Downside-34.90%-31.99%-28.98%

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