Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Riyue Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. (603218.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.60 - $107.92$101.13
Multi-Stage$64.70 - $71.00$67.79
Blended Fair Value$84.46
Current Price$14.69
Upside474.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.52%21.63%0.280.200.240.300.160.120.080.060.020.04
YoY Growth--38.53%-14.76%-21.88%94.27%30.46%52.33%33.33%280.76%-60.69%-0.31%
Dividend Yield--2.20%1.69%1.07%1.47%0.46%0.97%0.51%0.54%0.06%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)551.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)289.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)262.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)110.3268.9541.37
Cash Retained (M)262.48262.48262.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-110.32-68.95-41.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)152.15193.52221.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,016.561,016.561,016.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate1.60%1.60%1.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$91.60$101.13$107.92
Upside / Downside523.52%588.44%634.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)551.61587.47625.65666.32709.63755.76778.43
Payout Ratio52.42%59.93%67.45%74.97%82.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)289.14352.09422.00499.52585.33680.18720.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.60%1.60%1.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)343.28346.54349.79
Year 2 PV (M)401.16408.80416.51
Year 3 PV (M)462.97476.26489.80
Year 4 PV (M)528.94549.28570.20
Year 5 PV (M)599.28628.22658.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,440.3666,504.5569,686.02
Equity Value (M)65,775.9968,913.6572,170.60
Shares Outstanding (M)1,016.561,016.561,016.56
Fair Value$64.70$67.79$71.00
Upside / Downside340.47%361.48%383.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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