Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Relia, Inc. (4708.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$678.85 - $1,076.27$860.05
Multi-Stage$1,114.99 - $1,223.23$1,168.08
Blended Fair Value$1,014.07
Current Price$1,457.00
Upside-30.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS4.15%-2.47%43.0044.8240.8439.3338.2635.0930.8530.8630.8446.76
YoY Growth---4.06%9.74%3.84%2.78%9.05%13.75%-0.05%0.06%-34.04%-15.35%
Dividend Yield--2.95%4.19%3.01%3.92%3.04%2.22%2.52%2.90%2.25%4.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,301.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,134.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,166.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)860.20537.63322.58
Cash Retained (M)2,166.012,166.012,166.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-860.20-537.63-322.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,305.811,628.381,843.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.8464.8464.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.1425.1128.43
LTM Dividend per Share32.9332.9332.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.1425.1128.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend53.0758.0461.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate-0.10%0.90%1.90%
Fair Value$678.85$860.05$1,076.27
Upside / Downside-53.41%-40.97%-26.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,301.004,339.594,378.534,417.824,457.464,497.464,632.38
Payout Ratio49.64%57.71%65.78%73.86%81.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,134.992,504.452,880.363,262.823,651.904,047.714,284.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate-0.10%0.90%1.90%
Year 1 PV (M)2,302.202,325.252,348.30
Year 2 PV (M)2,433.942,482.922,532.38
Year 3 PV (M)2,534.482,611.352,689.77
Year 4 PV (M)2,607.642,713.632,822.82
Year 5 PV (M)2,656.872,792.532,933.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,758.6062,810.0865,984.97
Equity Value (M)72,293.7375,735.7779,311.92
Shares Outstanding (M)64.8464.8464.84
Fair Value$1,114.99$1,168.08$1,223.23
Upside / Downside-23.47%-19.83%-16.04%

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