Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Comforia Residential REIT, Inc (3282.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$978,180.92 - $4,547,629.81$2,190,231.25
Multi-Stage$579,666.31 - $633,075.10$605,884.96
Blended Fair Value$1,398,058.11
Current Price$271,600.00
Upside414.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.14%14.26%11,115.3310,223.6910,111.309,498.868,858.877,873.567,041.756,123.045,462.524,547.39
YoY Growth--8.72%1.11%6.45%7.22%12.51%11.81%15.00%12.09%20.12%55.13%
Dividend Yield--3.57%3.00%2.98%2.71%2.68%2.42%2.69%2.64%2.24%1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,385.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,716.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,669.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,477.192,173.241,303.95
Cash Retained (M)2,669.642,669.642,669.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,477.19-2,173.24-1,303.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)-807.55496.391,365.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.760.760.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1,065.70655.081,802.26
LTM Dividend per Share19,420.6519,420.6519,420.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1,065.70655.081,802.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend18,354.9520,075.7221,222.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.14%6.14%7.14%
Fair Value$978,180.92$2,190,231.25$4,547,629.81
Upside / Downside260.15%706.42%1,574.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,385.9518,453.3919,586.3620,788.9022,065.2623,420.0024,122.60
Payout Ratio84.64%85.72%86.79%87.86%88.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,716.3115,817.4816,998.4018,264.7019,622.4121,078.0022,313.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.14%6.14%7.14%
Year 1 PV (M)14,628.0314,767.1614,906.29
Year 2 PV (M)14,538.0214,815.8815,096.37
Year 3 PV (M)14,446.3514,862.4915,286.54
Year 4 PV (M)14,353.1314,907.0315,476.81
Year 5 PV (M)14,258.4414,949.5415,667.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)367,027.59384,817.08403,289.76
Equity Value (M)439,251.57459,119.17479,722.94
Shares Outstanding (M)0.760.760.76
Fair Value$579,666.31$605,884.96$633,075.10
Upside / Downside113.43%123.08%133.09%

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