Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.,Ltd (000048.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.52 - $155.23$109.06
Multi-Stage$19.38 - $21.18$20.27
Blended Fair Value$64.66
Current Price$16.26
Upside297.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS134.75%40.74%0.571.191.411.310.580.010.100.070.010.02
YoY Growth---52.04%-15.96%7.65%126.59%7,152.60%-91.86%41.33%481.18%-22.69%-17.30%
Dividend Yield--3.28%6.80%6.11%5.91%2.86%0.04%0.64%0.39%0.05%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)409.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)241.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)168.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.9751.2330.74
Cash Retained (M)168.14168.14168.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.97-51.23-30.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.16116.90137.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)525.08525.08525.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.52$109.06$155.23
Upside / Downside143.05%570.72%854.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)409.86436.50464.87495.09527.27561.54578.39
Payout Ratio58.98%65.18%71.39%77.59%83.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)241.72284.52331.85384.14441.83505.39535.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)263.00265.49267.98
Year 2 PV (M)283.55288.95294.40
Year 3 PV (M)303.40312.11320.99
Year 4 PV (M)322.57334.97347.73
Year 5 PV (M)341.06357.54374.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,664.659,083.159,517.68
Equity Value (M)10,178.2310,642.2111,123.42
Shares Outstanding (M)525.08525.08525.08
Fair Value$19.38$20.27$21.18
Upside / Downside19.21%24.65%30.28%

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