Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Scentre Group (SCG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.24 - $4.96$4.04
Multi-Stage$7.11 - $7.80$7.45
Blended Fair Value$5.74
Current Price$3.56
Upside61.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.49%-1.15%0.160.160.150.140.110.230.230.220.220.21
YoY Growth---0.79%11.88%5.35%22.81%-50.21%0.87%1.84%1.87%2.28%16.43%
Dividend Yield--4.75%5.47%5.09%4.41%4.08%5.95%5.79%5.30%4.69%5.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,857.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,691.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)371.50232.19139.31
Cash Retained (M)166.00166.00166.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-371.50-232.19-139.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)-205.50-66.1926.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,213.205,213.205,213.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-1.84%-0.84%0.16%
Fair Value$3.24$4.04$4.96
Upside / Downside-9.13%13.53%39.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,857.501,841.851,826.341,810.961,795.711,780.581,834.00
Payout Ratio91.06%90.85%90.64%90.43%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,691.501,673.341,655.361,637.571,619.951,602.521,696.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-1.84%-0.84%0.16%
Year 1 PV (M)1,550.901,566.701,582.50
Year 2 PV (M)1,421.971,451.091,480.51
Year 3 PV (M)1,303.761,344.011,385.09
Year 4 PV (M)1,195.371,244.831,295.81
Year 5 PV (M)1,095.981,152.961,212.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,478.6532,063.1433,712.86
Equity Value (M)37,046.6338,822.7340,669.04
Shares Outstanding (M)5,213.205,213.205,213.20
Fair Value$7.11$7.45$7.80
Upside / Downside99.62%109.19%119.13%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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