Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $109.07 - $220.37 | $152.15 |
| Multi-Stage | $159.73 - $175.02 | $167.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $159.69 | |
| Current Price | $123.75 | |
| Upside | 29.04% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 3.79% | 3.70% | 4.14 | 4.18 | 4.10 | 4.01 | 3.62 | 3.44 | 3.18 | 3.16 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.96% | 2.04% | 2.09% | 10.74% | 5.40% | 7.97% | 0.86% | 5.06% | 3.46% | 0.90% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.39% | 4.35% | 4.25% | 3.59% | 3.75% | 4.25% | 3.57% | 4.07% | 3.66% | 3.60% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4,993.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,022.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 971.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 998.60 | 624.13 | 374.48 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 971.00 | 971.00 | 971.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -998.60 | -624.13 | -374.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -27.60 | 346.88 | 596.53 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 776.25 | 776.25 | 776.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.45 | 0.77 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.18 | 5.18 | 5.18 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.45 | 0.77 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.15 | 5.63 | 5.95 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.59% | 6.59% | 6.59% |
| Growth Rate | 1.79% | 2.79% | 3.79% |
| Fair Value | $109.07 | $152.15 | $220.37 |
| Upside / Downside | -11.86% | 22.95% | 78.08% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4,993.00 | 5,132.18 | 5,275.24 | 5,422.28 | 5,573.43 | 5,728.79 | 5,900.65 |
| Payout Ratio | 80.55% | 82.44% | 84.33% | 86.22% | 88.11% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,022.00 | 4,231.08 | 4,448.70 | 4,675.15 | 4,910.78 | 5,155.91 | 5,458.10 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.59% | 6.59% | 6.59% |
| Growth Rate | 1.79% | 2.79% | 3.79% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,930.89 | 3,969.51 | 4,008.13 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,839.82 | 3,915.64 | 3,992.20 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,748.99 | 3,860.57 | 3,974.34 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,658.54 | 3,804.44 | 3,954.67 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,568.63 | 3,747.41 | 3,933.28 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 105,242.53 | 110,514.83 | 115,996.34 |
| Equity Value (M) | 123,989.39 | 129,812.39 | 135,858.96 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 776.25 | 776.25 | 776.25 |
| Fair Value | $159.73 | $167.23 | $175.02 |
| Upside / Downside | 29.07% | 35.14% | 41.43% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| RAUTE.HE | Raute Oyj | 3.53% | $0.52 | 26.97% |
| RWE.DE | RWE AG | 3.53% | $1.66 | 46.76% |
| SNL.AX | Supply Network Limited | 3.53% | $1.13 | 67.28% |
| 0NHS.L | Nutrien Ltd. | 3.52% | $2.18 | 58.76% |
| CELL.MI | Cellularline S.p.A. | 3.52% | $0.09 | 34.70% |
| INFREA.ST | Infrea AB | 3.52% | $0.50 | 67.57% |
| ISSP.JK | PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk | 3.52% | $15.00 | 19.85% |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | 3.52% | $1.92 | 52.47% |
| PARP.PA | Groupe Partouche S.A. | 3.52% | $0.64 | 38.61% |
| PKI.TO | Parkland Corporation | 3.52% | $1.40 | 73.81% |
| SMU.SN | SMU S.A. | 3.52% | $5.49 | 46.99% |
| 161390.KS | Hankook Tire & Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $2,000.00 | 25.86% |
| 300360.SZ | Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.61 | 52.03% |
| 5106.KL | Axis Real Estate Investment Trust | 3.51% | $0.07 | 56.99% |
| 601128.SS | Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.25 | 19.56% |
| INTP.JK | PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | 3.51% | $259.81 | 43.04% |
| RATO-A.ST | Ratos AB (publ) | 3.51% | $1.35 | 12.15% |
| 002887.SZ | Tianjin LVYIN Landscape and Ecology Construction Co., Ltd | 3.50% | $0.33 | 84.50% |
| 603062.SS | MEGA P&C Advanced Materials (Shanghai) Company Limited | 3.50% | $1.66 | 74.27% |
| CMCL | Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc | 3.50% | $0.92 | 35.87% |
| DLO | DLocal Limited | 3.50% | $0.49 | 87.74% |
| LAZ | Lazard Ltd | 3.50% | $1.74 | 67.48% |
| TWL.MI | TraWell Co S.p.A. | 3.50% | $0.21 | 28.69% |
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