Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche S.p.A. (DANR.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.25 - $79.91$60.72
Multi-Stage$53.19 - $58.34$55.72
Blended Fair Value$58.22
Current Price$25.60
Upside127.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.300.270.170.140.150.100.100.100.10
YoY Growth---100.00%10.50%60.65%19.98%-6.61%45.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%-64.49%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.38%1.36%1.37%0.85%1.58%1.05%0.67%0.66%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)282.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)258.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.5335.3321.20
Cash Retained (M)258.95258.95258.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.53-35.33-21.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)202.42223.62237.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.4879.4879.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.552.812.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.552.812.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.853.113.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$46.25$60.72$79.91
Upside / Downside80.65%137.20%212.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)282.65291.98301.62311.58321.87332.49342.47
Payout Ratio8.39%24.71%41.03%57.35%73.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.7072.14123.76178.70237.14299.24316.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)65.7966.4367.08
Year 2 PV (M)102.92104.94106.98
Year 3 PV (M)135.53139.54143.63
Year 4 PV (M)164.01170.52177.21
Year 5 PV (M)188.73198.14207.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,570.723,748.693,933.68
Equity Value (M)4,227.704,428.254,636.50
Shares Outstanding (M)79.4879.4879.48
Fair Value$53.19$55.72$58.34
Upside / Downside107.79%117.64%127.88%

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