Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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BA Airport Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (BAREIT.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - SpecialtySector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.03 - $10.54$8.69
Multi-Stage$14.44 - $15.84$15.12
Blended Fair Value$11.91
Current Price$9.35
Upside27.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%0.730.580.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--26.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.94%5.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)871.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)778.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.27108.9265.35
Cash Retained (M)92.4892.4892.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.27-108.92-65.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-81.79-16.4427.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,033.001,033.001,033.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.03$8.69$10.54
Upside / Downside-24.79%-7.01%12.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)871.36862.65854.02845.48837.03828.66853.52
Payout Ratio89.39%89.51%89.63%89.75%89.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)778.88772.15765.48758.86752.30745.79789.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)711.66718.92726.18
Year 2 PV (M)650.23663.57677.04
Year 3 PV (M)594.11612.48631.23
Year 4 PV (M)542.83565.33588.52
Year 5 PV (M)495.97521.80548.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,920.3712,541.0913,187.41
Equity Value (M)14,915.1715,623.1916,359.07
Shares Outstanding (M)1,033.001,033.001,033.00
Fair Value$14.44$15.12$15.84
Upside / Downside54.42%61.76%69.37%

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