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BA Airport Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (BAREIT.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - SpecialtySector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.05 - $10.57$8.72
Multi-Stage$14.51 - $15.91$15.19
Blended Fair Value$11.95
Current Price$9.35
Upside27.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%0.730.580.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--26.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.94%5.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)871.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)778.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.27108.9265.35
Cash Retained (M)92.4892.4892.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.27-108.92-65.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-81.79-16.4427.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,033.001,033.001,033.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.05$8.72$10.57
Upside / Downside-24.63%-6.79%13.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)871.36862.65854.02845.48837.03828.66853.52
Payout Ratio89.39%89.51%89.63%89.75%89.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)778.88772.15765.48758.86752.30745.79789.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)711.79719.06726.32
Year 2 PV (M)650.48663.82677.30
Year 3 PV (M)594.45612.83631.59
Year 4 PV (M)543.24565.76588.97
Year 5 PV (M)496.45522.30549.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,987.6012,611.8313,261.79
Equity Value (M)14,984.0215,695.6016,435.18
Shares Outstanding (M)1,033.001,033.001,033.00
Fair Value$14.51$15.19$15.91
Upside / Downside55.14%62.50%70.16%

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