Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Beijing Tieke Shougang Rail Way-Tech Co., Ltd. (688569.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.50 - $9.63$7.99
Multi-Stage$8.90 - $9.74$9.32
Blended Fair Value$8.65
Current Price$21.20
Upside-59.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.93%0.00%0.450.350.250.120.110.330.010.110.220.00
YoY Growth--28.57%37.56%108.32%9.45%-66.92%3,412.65%-91.59%-47.48%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.04%1.41%1.03%0.72%0.61%0.97%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)168.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.7021.0612.64
Cash Retained (M)94.7894.7894.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.70-21.06-12.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.0873.7182.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)212.32212.32212.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.350.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.350.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Fair Value$6.50$7.99$9.63
Upside / Downside-69.35%-62.30%-54.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)168.51170.52172.56174.62176.70178.81184.17
Payout Ratio43.76%53.00%62.25%71.50%80.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.7390.38107.42124.85142.69160.93170.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)81.3782.1882.99
Year 2 PV (M)87.0688.8090.57
Year 3 PV (M)91.0993.8496.65
Year 4 PV (M)93.7197.51101.42
Year 5 PV (M)95.1599.99105.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,442.061,515.471,591.85
Equity Value (M)1,890.431,977.802,068.51
Shares Outstanding (M)212.32212.32212.32
Fair Value$8.90$9.32$9.74
Upside / Downside-58.00%-56.06%-54.05%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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