Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Beijing Tieke Shougang Rail Way-Tech Co., Ltd. (688569.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.32 - $13.29$10.58
Multi-Stage$13.07 - $14.33$13.69
Blended Fair Value$12.13
Current Price$21.20
Upside-42.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.93%0.00%0.450.350.250.120.110.330.010.110.220.00
YoY Growth--28.57%37.56%108.32%9.45%-66.92%3,412.65%-91.59%-47.48%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.04%1.41%1.03%0.72%0.61%0.97%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)168.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.7021.0612.64
Cash Retained (M)94.7894.7894.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.70-21.06-12.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.0873.7182.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)212.32212.32212.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.350.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.350.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Fair Value$8.32$10.58$13.29
Upside / Downside-60.75%-50.11%-37.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)168.51170.52172.56174.62176.70178.81184.17
Payout Ratio43.76%53.00%62.25%71.50%80.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.7390.38107.42124.85142.69160.93170.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)82.9983.8284.64
Year 2 PV (M)90.5692.3794.21
Year 3 PV (M)96.6499.56102.54
Year 4 PV (M)101.40105.51109.74
Year 5 PV (M)105.00110.35115.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,297.682,414.662,536.35
Equity Value (M)2,774.272,906.263,043.39
Shares Outstanding (M)212.32212.32212.32
Fair Value$13.07$13.69$14.33
Upside / Downside-38.37%-35.43%-32.39%

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