Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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TPR Co., Ltd. (6463.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,575.18 - $4,065.39$3,256.58
Multi-Stage$3,304.47 - $3,626.95$3,462.65
Blended Fair Value$3,359.61
Current Price$1,217.00
Upside176.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.54%10.82%73.3747.3048.8643.3143.6048.7145.3044.3441.6745.88
YoY Growth--55.13%-3.20%12.82%-0.66%-10.51%7.53%2.17%6.40%-9.17%74.66%
Dividend Yield--7.53%3.76%5.77%7.21%5.90%7.27%4.77%3.44%2.30%4.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,473.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)678.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,794.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,094.601,309.13785.48
Cash Retained (M)9,794.509,794.509,794.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,094.60-1,309.13-785.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,699.908,485.389,009.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share185.05203.93216.51
LTM Dividend per Share16.3116.3116.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share185.05203.93216.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend201.36220.23232.82
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Fair Value$2,575.18$3,256.58$4,065.39
Upside / Downside111.60%167.59%234.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,473.0010,689.1910,909.8411,135.0411,364.9011,599.4911,947.48
Payout Ratio6.48%23.18%39.89%56.59%73.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)678.502,478.064,351.626,301.488,329.9810,439.5511,051.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)2,251.862,274.152,296.43
Year 2 PV (M)3,593.463,664.923,737.09
Year 3 PV (M)4,728.634,870.385,014.95
Year 4 PV (M)5,680.255,908.426,143.41
Year 5 PV (M)6,468.986,795.417,134.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)114,775.74120,567.59126,590.92
Equity Value (M)137,498.91144,080.88150,917.70
Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
Fair Value$3,304.47$3,462.65$3,626.95
Upside / Downside171.53%184.52%198.02%

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