Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (605339.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.30 - $1.85$1.57
Multi-Stage$2.23 - $2.44$2.34
Blended Fair Value$1.95
Current Price$17.05
Upside-88.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.31%0.00%0.130.330.360.300.510.160.620.350.130.06
YoY Growth---60.55%-8.97%18.26%-40.60%218.06%-74.33%77.24%170.26%121.23%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.79%1.89%1.37%1.32%2.08%0.66%2.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.999.995.99
Cash Retained (M)4.444.444.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.99-9.99-5.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.55-5.55-1.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)419.11419.11419.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.30$1.57$1.85
Upside / Downside-92.39%-90.79%-89.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.9379.1378.3477.5676.7876.0178.29
Payout Ratio94.45%93.56%92.67%91.78%90.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.4974.0372.5971.1869.7868.4172.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)66.9167.5968.28
Year 2 PV (M)59.3060.5261.75
Year 3 PV (M)52.5554.1855.84
Year 4 PV (M)46.5748.5050.49
Year 5 PV (M)41.2643.4145.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)669.70704.57740.88
Equity Value (M)936.30978.781,022.89
Shares Outstanding (M)419.11419.11419.11
Fair Value$2.23$2.34$2.44
Upside / Downside-86.90%-86.30%-85.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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