Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (605339.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.80 - $2.80$2.26
Multi-Stage$4.35 - $4.77$4.56
Blended Fair Value$3.41
Current Price$17.05
Upside-80.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.31%0.00%0.130.330.360.300.510.160.620.350.130.06
YoY Growth---60.55%-8.97%18.26%-40.60%218.06%-74.33%77.24%170.26%121.23%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.79%1.89%1.37%1.32%2.08%0.66%2.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.999.995.99
Cash Retained (M)4.444.444.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.99-9.99-5.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.55-5.55-1.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)419.11419.11419.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.80$2.26$2.80
Upside / Downside-89.45%-86.74%-83.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.9379.1378.3477.5676.7876.0178.29
Payout Ratio94.45%93.56%92.67%91.78%90.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.4974.0372.5971.1869.7868.4172.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)68.9369.6470.34
Year 2 PV (M)62.9464.2365.54
Year 3 PV (M)57.4759.2461.06
Year 4 PV (M)52.4654.6356.88
Year 5 PV (M)47.8950.3852.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,531.611,611.361,694.40
Equity Value (M)1,821.291,909.492,001.19
Shares Outstanding (M)419.11419.11419.11
Fair Value$4.35$4.56$4.77
Upside / Downside-74.51%-73.28%-71.99%

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