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China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. (601881.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.32 - $220.64$206.77
Multi-Stage$30.59 - $33.39$31.96
Blended Fair Value$119.37
Current Price$17.15
Upside596.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.20%16.97%0.390.280.340.230.150.080.110.140.290.11
YoY Growth--39.28%-18.58%52.64%52.30%77.78%-25.00%-22.58%-49.80%159.54%35.23%
Dividend Yield--2.35%2.31%3.43%2.27%1.43%0.88%0.88%1.39%2.14%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,130.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,924.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)206.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,426.171,516.35909.81
Cash Retained (M)206.07206.07206.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,426.17-1,516.35-909.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,220.09-1,310.28-703.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,934.4010,934.4010,934.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.12-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.12-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.32$206.77$220.64
Upside / Downside298.39%1,105.64%1,186.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,130.8312,919.3413,759.1014,653.4415,605.9116,620.2917,118.90
Payout Ratio98.30%96.64%94.98%93.32%91.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,924.7612,485.3813,068.4913,674.6614,304.4214,958.2615,834.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11,573.0211,682.7211,792.42
Year 2 PV (M)11,228.3411,442.2111,658.10
Year 3 PV (M)10,890.6011,203.2311,521.79
Year 4 PV (M)10,559.6810,965.7711,383.47
Year 5 PV (M)10,235.4510,729.8311,243.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)279,949.68293,471.35307,510.53
Equity Value (M)334,436.78349,495.12365,109.43
Shares Outstanding (M)10,934.4010,934.4010,934.40
Fair Value$30.59$31.96$33.39
Upside / Downside78.34%86.37%94.70%

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