Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited (2328.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$154.79 - $545.05$510.79
Multi-Stage$70.25 - $76.83$73.48
Blended Fair Value$292.14
Current Price$13.87
Upside2,006.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.71%17.82%0.700.480.410.380.460.270.230.210.200.18
YoY Growth--45.81%17.44%8.52%-18.65%69.49%20.71%9.38%1.64%12.59%33.16%
Dividend Yield--6.06%5.68%6.22%7.23%9.33%3.24%3.21%2.47%2.81%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60,958.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26,135.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,823.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12,191.607,619.754,571.85
Cash Retained (M)34,823.0034,823.0034,823.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-12,191.60-7,619.75-4,571.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)22,631.4027,203.2530,251.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,242.0022,242.0022,242.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.221.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.221.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.192.402.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$154.79$510.79$545.05
Upside / Downside1,016.01%3,582.71%3,829.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60,958.0064,920.2769,140.0973,634.1978,420.4283,517.7486,023.28
Payout Ratio42.87%52.30%61.72%71.15%80.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26,135.0033,952.6742,676.2152,390.3763,187.0675,165.9779,571.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31,435.1731,733.1432,031.10
Year 2 PV (M)36,582.2037,278.9937,982.35
Year 3 PV (M)41,579.3242,772.9143,989.13
Year 4 PV (M)46,429.7148,215.2750,051.84
Year 5 PV (M)51,136.5153,606.4256,170.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,355,252.931,420,712.161,488,676.66
Equity Value (M)1,562,415.851,634,318.891,708,901.94
Shares Outstanding (M)22,242.0022,242.0022,242.00
Fair Value$70.25$73.48$76.83
Upside / Downside406.46%429.77%453.95%

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