Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.02 - $217.25$141.32
Multi-Stage$70.83 - $77.36$74.04
Blended Fair Value$107.68
Current Price$140.78
Upside-23.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.60%0.00%1.050.820.630.430.330.260.200.150.000.00
YoY Growth--27.72%30.19%45.60%30.05%30.19%28.16%29.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.38%0.37%0.29%0.28%0.39%0.40%0.32%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,057.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)232.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)824.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)211.48132.1779.30
Cash Retained (M)824.76824.76824.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-211.48-132.17-79.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)613.28692.58745.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.26213.26213.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.883.253.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.883.253.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.974.344.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$98.02$141.32$217.25
Upside / Downside-30.38%0.39%54.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,057.381,126.111,199.301,277.261,360.281,448.701,492.16
Payout Ratio22.00%35.60%49.20%62.80%76.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)232.62400.89590.06802.121,039.251,303.831,380.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)361.78365.21368.64
Year 2 PV (M)480.55489.70498.94
Year 3 PV (M)589.52606.45623.69
Year 4 PV (M)689.30715.81743.07
Year 5 PV (M)780.42818.11857.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,204.2812,793.7513,405.78
Equity Value (M)15,105.8515,789.0316,497.38
Shares Outstanding (M)213.26213.26213.26
Fair Value$70.83$74.04$77.36
Upside / Downside-49.68%-47.41%-45.05%

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