Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $321.74 - $1,577.10 | $572.79 |
| Multi-Stage | $196.79 - $215.03 | $205.74 |
| Blended Fair Value | $389.27 | |
| Current Price | $112.12 | |
| Upside | 247.19% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 28.82% | 22.26% | 3.79 | 6.15 | 9.34 | 4.87 | 1.49 | 1.07 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -38.36% | -34.23% | 91.80% | 226.99% | 39.55% | 34.28% | 13.33% | 3.67% | 1.59% | 31.22% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.95% | 4.74% | 8.15% | 4.09% | 2.05% | 2.97% | 0.82% | 0.67% | 0.70% | 0.92% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 5,530.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,120.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 3,410.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,106.00 | 691.25 | 414.75 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 3,410.00 | 3,410.00 | 3,410.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,106.00 | -691.25 | -414.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 2,304.00 | 2,718.75 | 2,995.25 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 551.00 | 551.00 | 551.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.18 | 4.93 | 5.44 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.18 | 4.93 | 5.44 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 8.03 | 8.78 | 9.28 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.13% | 8.13% | 8.13% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $321.74 | $572.79 | $1,577.10 |
| Upside / Downside | 186.96% | 410.88% | 1,306.62% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 5,530.00 | 5,889.45 | 6,272.26 | 6,679.96 | 7,114.16 | 7,576.58 | 7,803.88 |
| Payout Ratio | 38.34% | 48.67% | 59.00% | 69.33% | 79.67% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,120.00 | 2,866.34 | 3,700.75 | 4,631.52 | 5,667.66 | 6,818.92 | 7,218.59 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.13% | 8.13% | 8.13% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,625.87 | 2,650.76 | 2,675.65 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,105.85 | 3,165.01 | 3,224.72 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,560.90 | 3,663.12 | 3,767.28 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,991.95 | 4,145.47 | 4,303.37 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,399.90 | 4,612.42 | 4,833.07 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 90,745.49 | 95,128.53 | 99,679.32 |
| Equity Value (M) | 108,429.96 | 113,365.30 | 118,483.41 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 551.00 | 551.00 | 551.00 |
| Fair Value | $196.79 | $205.74 | $215.03 |
| Upside / Downside | 75.52% | 83.50% | 91.79% |
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