Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $68.32 - $220.64 | $206.77 |
| Multi-Stage | $30.59 - $33.39 | $31.96 |
| Blended Fair Value | $119.37 | |
| Current Price | $17.15 | |
| Upside | 596.01% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 36.20% | 16.97% | 0.39 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.11 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 39.28% | -18.58% | 52.64% | 52.30% | 77.78% | -25.00% | -22.58% | -49.80% | 159.54% | 35.23% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.35% | 2.31% | 3.43% | 2.27% | 1.43% | 0.88% | 0.88% | 1.39% | 2.14% | 1.12% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 12,130.83 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 11,924.76 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 206.07 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,426.17 | 1,516.35 | 909.81 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 206.07 | 206.07 | 206.07 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,426.17 | -1,516.35 | -909.81 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -2,220.09 | -1,310.28 | -703.74 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 10,934.40 | 10,934.40 | 10,934.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.20 | -0.12 | -0.06 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.20 | -0.12 | -0.06 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.89 | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.87% | 6.87% | 6.87% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $68.32 | $206.77 | $220.64 |
| Upside / Downside | 298.39% | 1,105.64% | 1,186.51% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 12,130.83 | 12,919.34 | 13,759.10 | 14,653.44 | 15,605.91 | 16,620.29 | 17,118.90 |
| Payout Ratio | 98.30% | 96.64% | 94.98% | 93.32% | 91.66% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 11,924.76 | 12,485.38 | 13,068.49 | 13,674.66 | 14,304.42 | 14,958.26 | 15,834.98 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.87% | 6.87% | 6.87% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 11,573.02 | 11,682.72 | 11,792.42 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 11,228.34 | 11,442.21 | 11,658.10 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 10,890.60 | 11,203.23 | 11,521.79 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 10,559.68 | 10,965.77 | 11,383.47 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 10,235.45 | 10,729.83 | 11,243.12 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 279,949.68 | 293,471.35 | 307,510.53 |
| Equity Value (M) | 334,436.78 | 349,495.12 | 365,109.43 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 10,934.40 | 10,934.40 | 10,934.40 |
| Fair Value | $30.59 | $31.96 | $33.39 |
| Upside / Downside | 78.34% | 86.37% | 94.70% |
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