Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company (4001.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.71 - $105.32$98.70
Multi-Stage$16.60 - $18.15$17.36
Blended Fair Value$58.03
Current Price$7.78
Upside645.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.67%23.11%0.600.571.140.500.450.450.150.200.100.09
YoY Growth--4.35%-49.86%129.35%11.11%-1.17%203.56%-25.00%100.00%14.29%16.67%
Dividend Yield--6.19%4.31%8.92%4.26%3.55%4.89%2.07%2.62%1.81%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)479.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)333.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.8859.9235.95
Cash Retained (M)145.85145.85145.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.88-59.92-35.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.9885.93109.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)903.73903.73903.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.33%6.33%7.33%
Fair Value$44.71$98.70$105.32
Upside / Downside474.62%1,168.63%1,253.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)479.38509.70541.95576.24612.70651.46671.00
Payout Ratio69.57%73.66%77.74%81.83%85.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)333.53375.45421.34471.54526.40586.31620.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.33%6.33%7.33%
Year 1 PV (M)349.79353.11356.43
Year 2 PV (M)365.71372.69379.73
Year 3 PV (M)381.31392.28403.45
Year 4 PV (M)396.58411.86427.57
Year 5 PV (M)411.53431.44452.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,096.4013,730.0214,387.93
Equity Value (M)15,001.3215,691.3916,407.23
Shares Outstanding (M)903.73903.73903.73
Fair Value$16.60$17.36$18.15
Upside / Downside113.36%123.17%133.35%

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