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Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company (4001.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.51 - $105.32$98.70
Multi-Stage$16.69 - $18.25$17.46
Blended Fair Value$58.08
Current Price$7.78
Upside646.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.67%23.11%0.600.571.140.500.450.450.150.200.100.09
YoY Growth--4.35%-49.86%129.35%11.11%-1.17%203.56%-25.00%100.00%14.29%16.67%
Dividend Yield--6.19%4.31%8.92%4.26%3.55%4.89%2.07%2.62%1.81%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)479.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)333.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.8859.9235.95
Cash Retained (M)145.85145.85145.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.88-59.92-35.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.9885.93109.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)903.73903.73903.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.33%6.33%7.33%
Fair Value$45.51$98.70$105.32
Upside / Downside485.02%1,168.63%1,253.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)479.38509.70541.95576.24612.70651.46671.00
Payout Ratio69.57%73.66%77.74%81.83%85.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)333.53375.45421.34471.54526.40586.31620.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.33%6.33%7.33%
Year 1 PV (M)349.85353.17356.49
Year 2 PV (M)365.84372.82379.86
Year 3 PV (M)381.50392.47403.65
Year 4 PV (M)396.85412.13427.86
Year 5 PV (M)411.88431.80452.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,177.7313,815.2914,477.29
Equity Value (M)15,083.6415,777.6816,497.64
Shares Outstanding (M)903.73903.73903.73
Fair Value$16.69$17.46$18.25
Upside / Downside114.53%124.40%134.64%

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