Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Grand Pharmaceutical Group Limited (0512.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.50 - $254.78$238.76
Multi-Stage$37.26 - $40.77$38.98
Blended Fair Value$138.87
Current Price$8.72
Upside1,492.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.67%0.00%0.260.140.110.110.090.080.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--83.22%27.27%0.00%20.42%11.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.41%3.55%2.42%1.73%1.35%1.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,488.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,845.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,642.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)897.61561.00336.60
Cash Retained (M)2,642.262,642.262,642.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-897.61-561.00-336.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,744.652,081.262,305.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,503.303,503.303,503.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.121.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$104.50$238.76$254.78
Upside / Downside1,098.43%2,638.11%2,821.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,488.044,779.765,090.445,421.325,773.716,149.006,333.47
Payout Ratio41.13%50.90%60.68%70.45%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,845.782,432.963,088.683,819.364,631.985,534.105,858.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,262.282,283.722,305.17
Year 2 PV (M)2,670.522,721.392,772.73
Year 3 PV (M)3,070.623,158.773,248.58
Year 4 PV (M)3,462.703,595.863,732.83
Year 5 PV (M)3,846.874,032.674,225.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)115,211.92120,776.70126,554.46
Equity Value (M)130,524.91136,569.11142,839.36
Shares Outstanding (M)3,503.303,503.303,503.30
Fair Value$37.26$38.98$40.77
Upside / Downside327.27%347.05%367.58%

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