Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Henderson Land Development Company Limited (0012.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.96 - $43.21$34.31
Multi-Stage$60.07 - $65.97$62.96
Blended Fair Value$48.64
Current Price$27.45
Upside77.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.37%18.83%1.801.801.801.801.801.681.471.251.050.66
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.02%14.34%18.09%19.05%58.26%106.12%
Dividend Yield--7.63%7.64%6.61%5.42%5.95%4.40%4.15%2.89%3.38%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,508.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,136.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,372.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,501.601,563.50938.10
Cash Retained (M)1,372.001,372.001,372.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,501.60-1,563.50-938.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,129.60-191.50433.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,841.004,841.004,841.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.040.09
LTM Dividend per Share2.302.302.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.040.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.072.262.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-1.22%-0.22%0.78%
Fair Value$26.96$34.31$43.21
Upside / Downside-1.79%25.00%57.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,508.0012,480.3212,452.7012,425.1412,397.6412,370.2112,741.31
Payout Ratio89.03%89.22%89.42%89.61%89.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,136.0011,135.5411,135.0311,134.4711,133.8511,133.1911,785.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-1.22%-0.22%0.78%
Year 1 PV (M)10,365.4510,470.3910,575.33
Year 2 PV (M)9,648.189,844.5210,042.83
Year 3 PV (M)8,980.509,256.019,537.11
Year 4 PV (M)8,358.988,702.659,056.81
Year 5 PV (M)7,780.448,182.338,600.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)245,667.10258,356.67271,565.27
Equity Value (M)290,800.65304,812.57319,378.00
Shares Outstanding (M)4,841.004,841.004,841.00
Fair Value$60.07$62.96$65.97
Upside / Downside118.84%129.38%140.34%

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