Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (601608.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.24 - $2.31$1.67
Multi-Stage$1.48 - $1.63$1.55
Blended Fair Value$1.61
Current Price$5.38
Upside-70.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS65.22%-8.29%0.040.030.040.050.060.000.100.070.090.10
YoY Growth--43.13%-40.33%-12.98%-21.42%2,008.26%-97.07%39.73%-19.79%-13.15%19.87%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.57%1.13%1.36%1.72%0.09%1.91%2.03%1.54%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)375.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)341.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.0646.9128.15
Cash Retained (M)341.25341.25341.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.06-46.91-28.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)266.19294.34313.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,576.924,576.924,576.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate2.27%3.27%4.27%
Fair Value$1.24$1.67$2.31
Upside / Downside-77.01%-68.88%-57.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)375.31387.60400.29413.40426.94440.92454.15
Payout Ratio9.07%25.26%41.44%57.63%73.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.0697.91165.90238.24315.15396.83420.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate2.27%3.27%4.27%
Year 1 PV (M)90.0390.9191.79
Year 2 PV (M)140.27143.03145.81
Year 3 PV (M)185.22190.71196.30
Year 4 PV (M)225.29234.23243.44
Year 5 PV (M)260.85273.86287.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,875.416,168.326,472.79
Equity Value (M)6,777.077,101.057,437.51
Shares Outstanding (M)4,576.924,576.924,576.92
Fair Value$1.48$1.55$1.63
Upside / Downside-72.48%-71.16%-69.80%

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