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UGI Corporation (UGI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.92 - $42.43$34.73
Multi-Stage$40.41 - $44.26$42.30
Blended Fair Value$38.52
Current Price$33.26
Upside15.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.36%-2.20%1.481.461.411.361.301.252.132.021.981.92
YoY Growth--1.26%3.25%4.05%4.96%3.30%-41.04%5.23%2.21%2.99%3.88%
Dividend Yield--4.45%5.17%5.75%3.67%2.82%3.59%4.71%3.79%4.21%4.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)678.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)321.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)357.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)135.6084.7550.85
Cash Retained (M)357.00357.00357.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-135.60-84.75-50.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.40272.25306.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)217.71217.71217.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.251.41
LTM Dividend per Share1.471.471.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.251.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.492.732.88
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.16%1.16%2.16%
Fair Value$27.92$34.73$42.43
Upside / Downside-16.04%4.43%27.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)678.00685.87693.84701.90710.05718.30739.84
Payout Ratio47.35%55.88%64.41%72.94%81.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)321.00383.24446.88511.95578.47646.47684.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.16%1.16%2.16%
Year 1 PV (M)347.81351.28354.75
Year 2 PV (M)368.07375.46382.92
Year 3 PV (M)382.68394.26406.06
Year 4 PV (M)392.42408.33424.72
Year 5 PV (M)398.01418.27439.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,909.377,261.247,627.30
Equity Value (M)8,798.369,208.849,635.11
Shares Outstanding (M)217.71217.71217.71
Fair Value$40.41$42.30$44.26
Upside / Downside21.51%27.18%33.07%

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