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Tectonic Financial, Inc. (TECTP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.01 - $29.21$16.84
Multi-Stage$8.02 - $8.74$8.37
Blended Fair Value$12.60
Current Price$10.84
Upside16.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.94%0.00%0.670.510.480.410.220.200.121.530.000.00
YoY Growth--30.80%7.96%16.63%83.25%9.22%77.18%-92.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.33%5.03%4.76%3.79%2.34%2.72%1.14%15.16%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.650.410.25
Cash Retained (M)0.680.680.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.65-0.41-0.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.020.270.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.976.976.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.01$16.84$29.21
Upside / Downside1.57%55.31%169.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3.273.483.713.954.214.484.62
Payout Ratio79.28%81.42%83.57%85.71%87.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.592.843.103.393.704.034.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2.582.602.63
Year 2 PV (M)2.562.612.65
Year 3 PV (M)2.542.612.68
Year 4 PV (M)2.512.612.71
Year 5 PV (M)2.492.612.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)43.2345.3247.49
Equity Value (M)55.9058.3560.89
Shares Outstanding (M)6.976.976.97
Fair Value$8.02$8.37$8.74
Upside / Downside-26.02%-22.78%-19.42%

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