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Definitive Analysis

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Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (PNFP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$157.05 - $343.26$225.34
Multi-Stage$112.54 - $122.99$117.67
Blended Fair Value$171.50
Current Price$93.79
Upside82.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.73%19.73%0.890.890.880.720.640.650.590.460.320.24
YoY Growth--0.40%0.80%22.86%12.38%-0.88%9.62%26.59%45.22%35.06%60.62%
Dividend Yield--0.84%1.07%1.60%0.78%0.72%1.72%1.04%0.72%0.48%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)623.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)549.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)124.7177.9546.77
Cash Retained (M)549.71549.71549.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-124.71-77.95-46.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)425.00471.77502.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.2377.2377.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.506.116.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.506.116.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.467.067.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$157.05$225.34$343.26
Upside / Downside67.45%140.26%265.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)623.57664.11707.27753.24802.21854.35879.98
Payout Ratio11.84%27.48%43.11%58.74%74.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.86182.47304.88442.44596.59768.91813.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)164.56166.12167.68
Year 2 PV (M)247.99252.71257.48
Year 3 PV (M)324.56333.88343.37
Year 4 PV (M)394.70409.88425.49
Year 5 PV (M)458.79480.95503.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,101.707,444.717,800.86
Equity Value (M)8,692.299,088.259,498.83
Shares Outstanding (M)77.2377.2377.23
Fair Value$112.54$117.67$122.99
Upside / Downside20.00%25.46%31.13%

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