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Kennametal Inc. (KMT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.94 - $12.94$10.88
Multi-Stage$14.05 - $15.37$14.70
Blended Fair Value$12.79
Current Price$20.93
Upside-38.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.38%0.82%0.800.820.830.860.860.860.850.840.830.82
YoY Growth---2.49%-1.69%-3.07%-0.25%0.65%0.85%0.99%1.52%0.65%11.83%
Dividend Yield--3.82%3.16%3.35%4.18%2.52%2.96%2.76%1.94%2.05%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.8611.797.07
Cash Retained (M)32.8932.8932.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.86-11.79-7.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.0321.1125.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.4577.4577.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.270.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.270.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Fair Value$8.94$10.88$12.94
Upside / Downside-57.31%-48.01%-38.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.3094.1393.9793.8093.6493.4796.28
Payout Ratio65.12%70.09%75.07%80.05%85.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.4165.9870.5475.0979.6184.1389.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Year 1 PV (M)59.6060.2060.81
Year 2 PV (M)57.5658.7359.91
Year 3 PV (M)55.3457.0458.77
Year 4 PV (M)53.0055.1857.43
Year 5 PV (M)50.5953.2055.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)811.87853.79897.42
Equity Value (M)1,087.971,138.151,190.26
Shares Outstanding (M)77.4577.4577.45
Fair Value$14.05$14.70$15.37
Upside / Downside-32.88%-29.79%-26.57%

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