Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nofoth Food Products Company (9556.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.28 - $9.19$7.68
Multi-Stage$10.98 - $12.06$11.51
Blended Fair Value$9.60
Current Price$11.80
Upside-18.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.120.060.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--100.00%300.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.74%0.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.758.595.15
Cash Retained (M)47.2247.2247.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.75-8.59-5.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.4838.6342.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.3683.3683.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.28$7.68$9.19
Upside / Downside-46.81%-34.90%-22.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.7368.0467.3666.6966.0265.3667.32
Payout Ratio31.29%43.04%54.78%66.52%78.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.5129.2836.9044.3651.6758.8362.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)26.7727.0427.31
Year 2 PV (M)30.8331.4632.10
Year 3 PV (M)33.8834.9235.99
Year 4 PV (M)36.0737.5639.10
Year 5 PV (M)37.5339.4941.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)749.89788.94829.60
Equity Value (M)914.96959.411,005.63
Shares Outstanding (M)83.3683.3683.36
Fair Value$10.98$11.51$12.06
Upside / Downside-6.98%-2.46%2.24%

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