Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai International Port (Group) Co., Ltd. (600018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.48 - $10.29$8.22
Multi-Stage$8.01 - $8.79$8.39
Blended Fair Value$8.31
Current Price$5.45
Upside52.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.72%5.61%0.260.190.240.170.190.200.230.200.190.23
YoY Growth--34.92%-21.38%40.09%-9.33%-6.51%-12.65%18.30%4.17%-16.94%53.23%
Dividend Yield--4.44%3.53%4.38%3.17%3.99%4.56%3.17%2.80%3.22%4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,416.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,940.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,475.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,883.261,802.041,081.22
Cash Retained (M)12,475.3912,475.3912,475.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,883.26-1,802.04-1,081.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,592.1310,673.3511,394.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23,252.4023,252.4023,252.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Fair Value$6.48$8.22$10.29
Upside / Downside18.91%50.76%88.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,416.3014,767.9115,128.0915,497.0615,875.0216,262.2116,750.07
Payout Ratio13.46%28.77%44.08%59.39%74.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,940.914,248.826,668.169,202.9811,857.4814,635.9915,493.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Year 1 PV (M)3,852.793,890.783,928.76
Year 2 PV (M)5,483.035,591.675,701.37
Year 3 PV (M)6,862.007,066.947,275.93
Year 4 PV (M)8,017.198,338.038,668.41
Year 5 PV (M)8,973.449,424.569,893.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)153,156.42160,855.93168,862.03
Equity Value (M)186,344.87195,167.91204,330.13
Shares Outstanding (M)23,252.4023,252.4023,252.40
Fair Value$8.01$8.39$8.79
Upside / Downside47.05%54.01%61.24%

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