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Invesco California Value Municipal Income Trust (VCV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - IncomeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.26 - $6.99$6.16
Multi-Stage$11.17 - $12.30$11.73
Blended Fair Value$8.94
Current Price$11.09
Upside-19.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-5.66%-6.75%0.390.390.460.560.550.530.590.640.680.79
YoY Growth--1.92%-16.74%-17.19%2.19%4.07%-11.27%-7.66%-6.10%-13.67%0.18%
Dividend Yield--3.54%3.97%4.87%4.77%4.26%4.17%4.92%5.41%5.51%5.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.317.694.62
Cash Retained (M)24.2624.2624.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.31-7.69-4.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.9516.5719.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)47.8947.8947.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.121.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-8.75%-7.75%-6.75%
Fair Value$5.26$6.16$6.99
Upside / Downside-52.60%-44.48%-36.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.5356.7752.3748.3144.5741.1242.35
Payout Ratio60.58%66.46%72.35%78.23%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.2837.7337.8937.8037.4937.0039.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-8.75%-7.75%-6.75%
Year 1 PV (M)34.2134.5834.96
Year 2 PV (M)31.1531.8332.53
Year 3 PV (M)28.1729.1130.06
Year 4 PV (M)25.3326.4627.63
Year 5 PV (M)22.6723.9425.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)393.60415.65438.67
Equity Value (M)535.13561.58589.11
Shares Outstanding (M)47.8947.8947.89
Fair Value$11.17$11.73$12.30
Upside / Downside0.76%5.74%10.92%

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