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Invesco California Value Municipal Income Trust (VCV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - IncomeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.26 - $7.00$6.16
Multi-Stage$11.21 - $12.34$11.76
Blended Fair Value$8.96
Current Price$11.09
Upside-19.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-5.66%-6.75%0.390.390.460.560.550.530.590.640.680.79
YoY Growth--1.92%-16.74%-17.19%2.19%4.07%-11.27%-7.66%-6.10%-13.67%0.18%
Dividend Yield--3.54%3.97%4.87%4.77%4.26%4.17%4.92%5.41%5.51%5.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.317.694.62
Cash Retained (M)24.2624.2624.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.31-7.69-4.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.9516.5719.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)47.8947.8947.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.121.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-8.75%-7.75%-6.75%
Fair Value$5.26$6.16$7.00
Upside / Downside-52.55%-44.42%-36.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.5356.7752.3748.3144.5741.1242.35
Payout Ratio60.58%66.46%72.35%78.23%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.2837.7337.8937.8037.4937.0039.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-8.75%-7.75%-6.75%
Year 1 PV (M)34.2134.5934.96
Year 2 PV (M)31.1631.8432.54
Year 3 PV (M)28.1829.1230.08
Year 4 PV (M)25.3526.4827.65
Year 5 PV (M)22.6923.9625.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)395.09417.22440.33
Equity Value (M)536.69563.22590.85
Shares Outstanding (M)47.8947.8947.89
Fair Value$11.21$11.76$12.34
Upside / Downside1.05%6.05%11.25%

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