Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $110.55 - $212.89 | $151.46 |
| Multi-Stage | $98.93 - $108.30 | $103.53 |
| Blended Fair Value | $127.50 | |
| Current Price | $113.47 | |
| Upside | 12.36% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 2.58% | -5.16% | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 | 1.60 | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.28 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 31.99% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -45.18% | 15.11% | 2.86% | 5.71% | -24.49% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.88% | 0.68% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.48% | 1.10% | 1.27% | 1.21% | 1.22% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 12,404.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 905.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 11,499.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,480.80 | 1,550.50 | 930.30 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 11,499.00 | 11,499.00 | 11,499.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,480.80 | -1,550.50 | -930.30 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 9,018.20 | 9,948.50 | 10,568.70 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,812.00 | 1,812.00 | 1,812.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.98 | 5.49 | 5.83 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.98 | 5.49 | 5.83 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.48 | 5.99 | 6.33 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.21% | 9.21% | 9.21% |
| Growth Rate | 4.05% | 5.05% | 6.05% |
| Fair Value | $110.55 | $151.46 | $212.89 |
| Upside / Downside | -2.57% | 33.48% | 87.61% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 12,404.00 | 13,030.74 | 13,689.14 | 14,380.81 | 15,107.43 | 15,870.77 | 16,346.89 |
| Payout Ratio | 7.30% | 23.84% | 40.38% | 56.92% | 73.46% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 905.00 | 3,106.11 | 5,527.35 | 8,185.33 | 11,097.80 | 14,283.69 | 15,120.87 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.21% | 9.21% | 9.21% |
| Growth Rate | 4.05% | 5.05% | 6.05% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,817.17 | 2,844.24 | 2,871.32 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,546.81 | 4,634.63 | 4,723.28 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 6,106.91 | 6,284.68 | 6,465.87 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 7,509.61 | 7,802.49 | 8,103.84 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 8,766.30 | 9,195.72 | 9,641.80 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 149,507.30 | 156,830.93 | 164,438.79 |
| Equity Value (M) | 179,254.10 | 187,592.68 | 196,244.90 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,812.00 | 1,812.00 | 1,812.00 |
| Fair Value | $98.93 | $103.53 | $108.30 |
| Upside / Downside | -12.82% | -8.76% | -4.55% |
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