Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Datang International Power Generation Co., Ltd. (601991.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.93 - $33.93$16.31
Multi-Stage$10.40 - $11.40$10.89
Blended Fair Value$13.60
Current Price$3.39
Upside301.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.02%-6.17%0.370.410.430.090.060.100.550.410.520.67
YoY Growth---8.92%-4.26%368.29%40.00%-35.00%-81.94%35.17%-20.78%-22.47%-5.08%
Dividend Yield--12.60%13.97%14.06%3.82%2.30%4.88%15.86%11.13%10.47%15.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,788.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,464.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,324.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,357.78848.61509.17
Cash Retained (M)2,324.882,324.882,324.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,357.78-848.61-509.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)967.101,476.271,815.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18,506.7118,506.7118,506.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Fair Value$9.93$16.31$33.93
Upside / Downside192.87%380.97%900.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,788.917,079.667,382.867,699.048,028.778,372.618,623.79
Payout Ratio65.75%70.60%75.45%80.30%85.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,464.034,998.515,570.576,182.476,836.577,535.357,977.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Year 1 PV (M)4,655.614,700.694,745.77
Year 2 PV (M)4,832.524,926.555,021.49
Year 3 PV (M)4,995.435,141.935,291.28
Year 4 PV (M)5,145.005,347.175,555.24
Year 5 PV (M)5,281.865,542.565,813.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)167,630.19175,903.98184,501.29
Equity Value (M)192,540.60201,562.88210,928.51
Shares Outstanding (M)18,506.7118,506.7118,506.71
Fair Value$10.40$10.89$11.40
Upside / Downside206.90%221.28%236.21%

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