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Datang International Power Generation Co., Ltd. (601991.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.00 - $34.62$16.47
Multi-Stage$10.47 - $11.47$10.96
Blended Fair Value$13.72
Current Price$3.39
Upside304.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.02%-6.17%0.370.410.430.090.060.100.550.410.520.67
YoY Growth---8.92%-4.26%368.29%40.00%-35.00%-81.94%35.17%-20.78%-22.47%-5.08%
Dividend Yield--12.60%13.97%14.06%3.82%2.30%4.88%15.86%11.13%10.47%15.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,788.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,464.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,324.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,357.78848.61509.17
Cash Retained (M)2,324.882,324.882,324.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,357.78-848.61-509.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)967.101,476.271,815.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18,506.7118,506.7118,506.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Fair Value$10.00$16.47$34.62
Upside / Downside194.90%385.95%921.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,788.917,079.667,382.867,699.048,028.778,372.618,623.79
Payout Ratio65.75%70.60%75.45%80.30%85.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,464.034,998.515,570.576,182.476,836.577,535.357,977.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Year 1 PV (M)4,656.534,701.624,746.70
Year 2 PV (M)4,834.434,928.505,023.47
Year 3 PV (M)4,998.395,144.985,294.42
Year 4 PV (M)5,149.065,351.395,559.63
Year 5 PV (M)5,287.085,548.045,819.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)168,859.09177,193.54185,853.87
Equity Value (M)193,784.58202,868.07212,297.30
Shares Outstanding (M)18,506.7118,506.7118,506.71
Fair Value$10.47$10.96$11.47
Upside / Downside208.88%223.36%238.39%

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