Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd. (002236.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.34 - $238.16$223.19
Multi-Stage$32.32 - $35.36$33.81
Blended Fair Value$128.50
Current Price$20.15
Upside537.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.13%31.66%0.580.570.280.270.140.120.210.110.080.04
YoY Growth--0.84%105.07%2.88%96.87%11.60%-41.87%94.35%33.63%125.39%-1.58%
Dividend Yield--3.40%3.00%1.24%1.64%0.56%0.77%1.23%0.43%0.51%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,896.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,497.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,398.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)779.24487.02292.21
Cash Retained (M)2,398.782,398.782,398.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-779.24-487.02-292.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,619.541,911.752,106.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.453,253.453,253.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$78.34$223.19$238.16
Upside / Downside288.81%1,007.67%1,081.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,896.194,149.444,419.154,706.405,012.315,338.115,498.26
Payout Ratio38.43%48.75%59.06%69.37%79.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,497.412,022.692,609.943,264.973,994.144,804.305,085.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,876.301,894.081,911.87
Year 2 PV (M)2,245.812,288.592,331.77
Year 3 PV (M)2,606.122,680.942,757.17
Year 4 PV (M)2,957.403,071.143,188.12
Year 5 PV (M)3,299.813,459.203,624.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,166.6396,618.31101,240.37
Equity Value (M)105,152.08110,012.25115,053.97
Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.453,253.453,253.45
Fair Value$32.32$33.81$35.36
Upside / Downside60.40%67.81%75.50%

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