Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Vicinity Centres (VCX.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.80 - $6.23$4.89
Multi-Stage$7.05 - $7.75$7.39
Blended Fair Value$6.14
Current Price$2.47
Upside148.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.61%5.77%0.110.120.110.110.030.130.140.140.150.15
YoY Growth---6.30%5.66%1.36%232.24%-73.73%-5.29%-4.88%-6.13%1.72%132.48%
Dividend Yield--4.58%6.42%6.17%6.12%2.19%9.03%5.47%5.53%5.94%4.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,551.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)819.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)732.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)310.34193.96116.38
Cash Retained (M)732.30732.30732.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-310.34-193.96-116.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)421.96538.34615.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,565.364,565.364,565.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-0.32%0.68%1.68%
Fair Value$3.80$4.89$6.23
Upside / Downside53.95%97.83%152.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,551.701,562.241,572.851,583.531,594.281,605.111,653.26
Payout Ratio52.81%60.25%67.68%75.12%82.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)819.40941.171,064.561,189.591,316.261,444.601,529.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-0.32%0.68%1.68%
Year 1 PV (M)872.44881.19889.95
Year 2 PV (M)914.76933.20951.83
Year 3 PV (M)947.54976.341,005.72
Year 4 PV (M)971.871,011.461,052.25
Year 5 PV (M)988.731,039.331,091.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,496.1628,903.3530,367.56
Equity Value (M)32,191.4933,744.8735,359.30
Shares Outstanding (M)4,565.364,565.364,565.36
Fair Value$7.05$7.39$7.75
Upside / Downside185.48%199.25%213.57%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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