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Vicinity Centres (VCX.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.81 - $6.25$4.90
Multi-Stage$7.08 - $7.78$7.42
Blended Fair Value$6.16
Current Price$2.47
Upside149.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.61%5.77%0.110.120.110.110.030.130.140.140.150.15
YoY Growth---6.30%5.66%1.36%232.24%-73.73%-5.29%-4.88%-6.13%1.72%132.48%
Dividend Yield--4.58%6.42%6.17%6.12%2.19%9.03%5.47%5.53%5.94%4.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,551.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)819.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)732.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)310.34193.96116.38
Cash Retained (M)732.30732.30732.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-310.34-193.96-116.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)421.96538.34615.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,565.364,565.364,565.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.32%0.68%1.68%
Fair Value$3.81$4.90$6.25
Upside / Downside54.29%98.33%153.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,551.701,562.241,572.851,583.531,594.281,605.111,653.26
Payout Ratio52.81%60.25%67.68%75.12%82.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)819.40941.171,064.561,189.591,316.261,444.601,529.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.32%0.68%1.68%
Year 1 PV (M)872.57881.32890.08
Year 2 PV (M)915.02933.47952.11
Year 3 PV (M)947.95976.761,006.16
Year 4 PV (M)972.431,012.041,052.85
Year 5 PV (M)989.451,040.081,092.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,627.8829,041.8130,513.05
Equity Value (M)32,325.2933,885.4935,507.01
Shares Outstanding (M)4,565.364,565.364,565.36
Fair Value$7.08$7.42$7.78
Upside / Downside186.66%200.50%214.88%

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