Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Sunglow Packaging Technology Co.,Ltd (603499.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.77 - $24.06$15.57
Multi-Stage$7.95 - $8.67$8.30
Blended Fair Value$11.94
Current Price$17.60
Upside-32.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.99%-3.98%0.070.060.020.010.050.090.080.000.000.20
YoY Growth--16.82%152.20%98.61%-75.32%-43.52%1.22%18,772.19%-68.67%-99.29%92.90%
Dividend Yield--0.43%0.36%0.34%0.21%0.87%1.08%0.75%0.00%0.03%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5715.989.59
Cash Retained (M)76.1076.1076.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.57-15.98-9.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.5360.1266.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)236.75236.75236.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.77$15.57$24.06
Upside / Downside-38.80%-11.52%36.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.84136.15145.00154.43164.46175.16180.41
Payout Ratio40.47%50.38%60.28%70.19%80.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.7468.5987.41108.39131.73157.64166.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)61.9262.5163.09
Year 2 PV (M)71.2472.6073.97
Year 3 PV (M)79.7582.0484.37
Year 4 PV (M)87.4990.8694.32
Year 5 PV (M)94.5299.09103.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,486.491,558.291,632.83
Equity Value (M)1,881.411,965.372,052.40
Shares Outstanding (M)236.75236.75236.75
Fair Value$7.95$8.30$8.67
Upside / Downside-54.85%-52.83%-50.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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