Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

AVIC Airborne Systems Co. Ltd. Class A (600372.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.63 - $9.80$5.58
Multi-Stage$2.62 - $2.85$2.73
Blended Fair Value$4.15
Current Price$12.61
Upside-67.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS58.41%25.82%0.180.180.050.040.020.020.020.020.020.02
YoY Growth--2.12%257.52%24.93%81.47%20.53%-16.91%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.63%1.48%0.28%0.21%0.14%0.14%0.13%0.12%0.09%0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)737.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)566.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147.4792.1755.30
Cash Retained (M)170.82170.82170.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-147.47-92.17-55.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.3578.65115.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,844.474,844.474,844.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.63$5.58$9.80
Upside / Downside-71.25%-55.78%-22.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)737.34785.27836.31890.67948.561,010.221,040.53
Payout Ratio76.83%79.47%82.10%84.73%87.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)566.52624.02686.61754.69828.73909.20962.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)566.90572.27577.64
Year 2 PV (M)566.65577.44588.34
Year 3 PV (M)565.82582.06598.61
Year 4 PV (M)564.45586.15608.48
Year 5 PV (M)562.57589.74617.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,854.0910,330.0410,824.21
Equity Value (M)12,680.4713,237.7113,815.24
Shares Outstanding (M)4,844.474,844.474,844.47
Fair Value$2.62$2.73$2.85
Upside / Downside-79.24%-78.33%-77.38%

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