DDM Analysis: ZGN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$77.30 - $152.29	$142.72
Multi-Stage	$23.46 - $25.69	$24.55
Blended Fair Value	$83.63
Current Price	$7.25
Upside	1,053.56%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	18.93%	0.00%	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.00	0.01	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	21.01%	14.55%	21,323.53%	-94.11%	-86.40%	-3.16%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.49%	0.94%	0.87%	0.00%	0.08%	0.52%	0.55%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	195.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	55.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)	140.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	39.15	24.47	14.68
Cash Retained (M)	140.41	140.41	140.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-39.15	-24.47	-14.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)	101.26	115.94	125.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	255.61	255.61	255.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.40	0.45	0.49
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.40	0.45	0.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.61	0.67	0.71
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$77.30	$142.72	$152.29
Upside / Downside	966.19%	1,868.49%	2,000.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	195.73	208.45	222.00	236.43	251.80	268.16	276.21
Payout Ratio	28.26%	40.61%	52.96%	65.31%	77.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	55.32	84.65	117.57	154.40	195.53	241.35	255.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	78.86	79.61	80.36
Year 2 PV (M)	102.03	103.97	105.94
Year 3 PV (M)	124.83	128.41	132.06
Year 4 PV (M)	147.26	152.93	158.75
Year 5 PV (M)	169.34	177.52	186.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,373.45	5,632.99	5,902.47
Equity Value (M)	5,995.78	6,275.44	6,565.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	255.61	255.61	255.61
Fair Value	$23.46	$24.55	$25.69
Upside / Downside	223.55%	238.64%	254.30%

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Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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