Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Triton International Limited (TRTN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.09 - $131.17$99.04
Multi-Stage$152.93 - $168.30$160.47
Blended Fair Value$129.75
Current Price$24.00
Upside440.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.141.601.561.451.521.581.340.840.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-28.75%3.09%7.40%-4.80%-4.01%18.24%59.95%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%4.62%6.89%5.92%5.37%8.43%6.30%5.33%3.33%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)585.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)166.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)418.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)117.1473.2143.93
Cash Retained (M)418.78418.78418.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-117.14-73.21-43.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)301.64345.57374.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)101.16101.16101.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.983.423.71
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.983.423.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.635.075.36
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Fair Value$75.09$99.04$131.17
Upside / Downside212.88%312.67%446.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)585.71590.51595.35600.22605.14610.09628.39
Payout Ratio28.50%40.80%53.10%65.40%77.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)166.93240.93316.13392.54470.19549.08581.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Year 1 PV (M)225.09227.34229.60
Year 2 PV (M)275.92281.48287.09
Year 3 PV (M)320.09329.81339.72
Year 4 PV (M)358.20372.77387.78
Year 5 PV (M)390.80410.77431.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,900.3114,610.6715,349.79
Equity Value (M)15,470.4116,232.8417,025.53
Shares Outstanding (M)101.16101.16101.16
Fair Value$152.93$160.47$168.30
Upside / Downside537.22%568.62%601.27%

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