Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,015.78 - $1,197.28$1,121.79
Multi-Stage$703.55 - $773.62$737.92
Blended Fair Value$929.85
Current Price$217.04
Upside328.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.14%4.81%2.682.542.422.292.162.092.031.961.821.70
YoY Growth--5.66%4.83%5.84%5.87%3.52%2.80%3.40%7.69%7.27%1.39%
Dividend Yield--1.24%1.75%1.72%1.99%1.36%1.74%2.13%2.63%1.92%2.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,842.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)803.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,039.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)368.40230.25138.15
Cash Retained (M)1,039.001,039.001,039.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-368.40-230.25-138.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)670.60808.75900.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)299.25299.25299.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.242.703.01
LTM Dividend per Share2.682.682.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.242.703.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.925.395.69
WACC / Discount Rate0.15%0.15%0.15%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Fair Value$1,015.78$1,121.79$1,197.28
Upside / Downside368.02%416.86%451.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,842.001,918.251,997.672,080.372,166.492,256.182,323.86
Payout Ratio43.59%52.88%62.16%71.44%80.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)803.001,014.281,241.681,486.161,748.762,030.562,149.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.15%0.15%0.15%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Year 1 PV (M)1,003.021,012.751,022.47
Year 2 PV (M)1,214.271,237.931,261.82
Year 3 PV (M)1,437.221,479.441,522.46
Year 4 PV (M)1,672.411,738.221,805.95
Year 5 PV (M)1,920.352,015.262,113.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)203,289.88213,337.91223,779.38
Equity Value (M)210,537.15220,821.50231,505.98
Shares Outstanding (M)299.25299.25299.25
Fair Value$703.55$737.92$773.62
Upside / Downside224.16%239.99%256.44%

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